Brent Ciliano, First Citizens Chief Investment Officer, and Phillip Neuhart, First Citizens Director of Market and Economic Research, provide timely insights and in-depth commentaries on the issues impacting the economy and the markets.
Making Sense: In Brief video
Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy
Tuesday, January 21, 2025
Phil: The major event last week was the Consumer Price Index report for December, which came in slightly softer than expected, driving bond yields lower and stocks higher.
Official economic news is quiet this week. Instead, markets will be reacting to more frequent developments from corporate earnings and government policy.
Following President Trump's inauguration yesterday, markets will be closely following the new administration's early steps on economic policies. Many major policies on the table this year require congressional action, but presidents have wide-ranging authority to enact changes to trade and tariffs. President Trump has pledged to increase tariffs on imports from many US trading partners, and markets will be waiting for details on the timing and size of any potential tariff hikes.
In addition, fourth quarter earnings season heats up this week with dozens of S&P 500 companies reporting results across a wide swath of industries. While still very early in the season, earnings results have been solid so far with over 80% of companyies' earnings outperforming consensus estimates.
Lastly, markets will be watching the latest existing home sales data on Friday. The Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate crossed 7% last week on the back of higher Treasury yields. With so many homeowners locked in to much lower mortgage rates—and with the elevator rates turning off first-time buyers—there is a risk that home sales could slow.
So items to watch this week. One, new economic policy announcements from the White House. Two, fourth quarter earnings season. Three, existing home sales.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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About the Entities, Brands and Services Offered: First Citizens Wealth™ (FCW) is a marketing brand of First Citizens BancShares, Inc., a bank holding company. The following affiliates of First Citizens BancShares are the entities through which FCW products are offered. Brokerage products and services are offered through First Citizens Investor Services, Inc. ("FCIS"), a registered broker-dealer, Member FINRA, Opens in a new tab and SIPC, Opens in a new tab. Advisory services are offered through FCIS, First Citizens Asset Management, Inc. and SVB Wealth LLC, all SEC registered investment advisors. Certain brokerage and advisory products and services may not be available from all investment professionals, in all jurisdictions or to all investors. Insurance products and services are offered through FCIS, a licensed insurance agency. Banking, lending, trust products and services, and certain insurance products and services are offered by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC, Opens in a new tab, and an Equal Housing Lender, and SVB, a division of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company.
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